Household Survey Employment/Labor Force (CPS)

The CPS series were altered by large population control factors after the Census Bureau raised its population estimates by 3 million. That led to a 2 million addition to January employment estimates and a similar increase to the labor force. The labor force participation rate (62.6%) and employment-population ratio (60.1%) showed no significant shifts, however. The unemployment rate was lowered to 4.0% from 4.1%.

Interpretation

The major factor in the CPS report is the application of new population controls from updated Census Bureau estimates. These adjustments raised the total number of employed and unemployed individuals but did not significantly alter labor market proportions. In other words, while the absolute number of jobs increased, the employment-to-population ratio and labor force participation rate remained the same, reinforcing the idea that the labor market has not meaningfully tightened or loosened.

Basically, Census “discovered” a few million more working-age people in the United States which forced the BLS to recalculate its CPS levels which flow from the population figures. In keeping with BLS practice, prior years were not revised meaning the data is not directly comparable to previous releases.

We are instead supposed to look at employment the last few years (going back to 2020) as if those two million or so additional workers were always there even if they never showed up before. This isn’t the first time the population controls created substantial discontinuities; both January 2022 and January 2023 were afflicted with sizable alterations, too (and are still visible on the charts).

Sectoral trends indicate that job gains were concentrated in industries with ongoing demand, such as health care and social assistance, while retail trade saw a seasonal boost. However, job losses in mining and oil extraction suggest some weakness in resource-based industries, potentially reflecting lower energy demand or shifting economic priorities.

Ultimately, these statistics underscore that while job growth continues, there is no evidence of an accelerating labor market with the overall gap to recovery most importantly still growing. The population adjustments add statistical clarity but do not change the overall trajectory. The key takeaway is that while more people are participating in the economy, the fundamental employment picture remains largely unchanged.